Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka opens her Beijing campaign against Mexico's Renata Zarazua, ranked 94th. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 1-0 after a 6-4, 6-0 win in Brisbane in 2024.
Sabalenka is 33-4 on hard courts this season and arrives as the second seed with a draw that looks friendly. She has the biggest serve and forehand in this field, and Zarazua rarely has the pace to hurt her in neutral rallies. Even on a day when her first-serve percentage dips, the margin for error is wide.
Zarazua earned her place by beating Anna Bondar 7-6(4), 6-3, hitting 32 winners in the process. She is a gritty counterpuncher with good hands at net, but she is 18-19 on hard this year and has struggled to string together wins against top-30 opposition.
The route to an upset is a high-error day from Sabalenka plus a tiebreak run, which is unlikely given her form. Expect Sabalenka to hold comfortably and break often.
Prediction: Sabalenka to win in straight sets. Confidence: very high.