Holger Rune returns to the ATP Tour in Tokyo and draws the French player Kyrian Jacquet, who is coming off a semifinal run in Hangzhou last week. That makes this a genuinely tricky first-round return.
Rune has the higher ceiling. When healthy he mixes heavy forehands with touch, moves well and competes in every point. The unknown is match fitness. Time away from the tour usually shows first in timing on return games and in the ability to sustain intensity late in sets, and Jacquet will be sharper simply from playing.
Jacquet is a fluent, aggressive hard-court player who reached the Hangzhou semifinal before losing to Andrey Rublev 7-6, 6-4. He plays with a free swing and can win points quickly, which is the best way to trouble a player who has not competed recently. Both tiebreak and momentum swings are plausible.
Rune still has the tools to survive an uneven start. His variety and competitiveness usually pull him through tight moments, and Jacquet has fewer high-level wins to lean on.
Prediction: Rune to win in three sets. Confidence: low. This is a coin flip with a slight edge for the higher-ranked player.