Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz opens his Tokyo title defense against Alex Michelsen, the American fresh off a run to the US Open quarterfinals. It is their first career meeting.
Alcaraz is only three tournaments into his return from a wrist injury that kept him out for about four and a half months, but he arrived in Tokyo after winning at the Laver Cup and has shown little rust. His movement, drop shot and ability to change pace remain a level above almost everyone in the draw, and the indoor-feeling conditions in Tokyo suit his aggressive style.
Michelsen deserves respect. His lefty serve is heavy, he hits a big forehand, and his New York run showed he can handle pressure against top players. The problem is that Alcaraz rarely gives free points on return, and Michelsen's second serve will face constant pressure.
The one caveat is match sharpness. A first round with a dangerous opponent can produce a tight opening set if Alcaraz is loose. But over two sets his depth of shot-making should prevail.
Prediction: Alcaraz to win in straight sets. Confidence: high.