Eighth seed Jakub Mensik is the pick over Alexander Bublik in the first round of the China Open in Beijing, though this is the least predictable match on the opening slate. Pre-match models give Mensik roughly a 60 percent chance, which is a modest edge rather than a comfortable one.
Mensik brings a big serve, a heavy forehand and the calmer temperament of the two. On a fast outdoor hard court his first-strike tennis is a natural fit, and he is used to holding serve under pressure against tall, aggressive opponents.
Bublik is the wildcard. His serve is among the best on tour, and his mix of drop shots, underarm serves and sudden changes of pace can drag a match away from the rhythm the favorite wants. When he is engaged he can beat anyone in a short match, and when he is not the score can get lopsided fast.
Expect a tight first set decided by one or two tiebreak points. Mensik is steadier from the baseline and should hold the edge in longer rallies, which gives him the better chance of separating late.
Prediction: Mensik to win in three sets. Confidence: medium.