Fifth seed Alex de Minaur should beat Mariano Navone in the first round of the China Open in Beijing. The Australian is the clear favorite on outdoor hard courts, and the pre-match models back that up, with one projection giving him roughly an 84 percent chance of winning.
De Minaur wins through movement and consistency. He returns well, defends the baseline and rarely hands out cheap points, which suits a fast hard court where he can turn defense into offense with his flat groundstrokes. Navone is a heavy-topspin baseliner who is more comfortable on clay, and his higher bounce is less effective on a quick surface.
The path for an upset runs through Navone's forehand. If he can pin de Minaur behind the baseline and keep the rallies long, he can push for a set. That is difficult to sustain against an opponent who covers the court as well as de Minaur does.
Expect de Minaur to take the first set and manage the match from there. A slow start after the trip to China is the main risk, but the gap in surface fit is large.
Prediction: De Minaur to win in straight sets. Confidence: high.