Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Hubert Hurkacz meet for the Chengdu title in a final that looks closer than the seedings suggest. Davidovich Fokina, the second seed, leads the head-to-head 4-2, and the last meeting was a three-set win for the Spaniard at the 2024 United Cup.
Davidovich Fokina is playing his first tournament run in months after a back problem kept him out of the North American hard-court swing. He reached this final by coming back from 4-6 down in the first set against Nikoloz Basilashvili, which says plenty about his movement and belief. Hurkacz, the fifth seed, beat Denis Shapovalov 6-3, 6-3 after losing a tight first-set tiebreak, and the quick Chengdu courts suit his serve and net game.
The key question is whether Hurkacz can hold serve consistently enough to keep Davidovich Fokina from finding his angles. If the points stay short, Hurkacz has the edge. If rallies stretch, the Spaniard's defense and shot variety should tell.
Prediction: Davidovich Fokina to win in three sets. Confidence: low.