Fifth seed Hubert Hurkacz takes on Denis Shapovalov on Monday for a spot in the Chengdu final, and the history between them heavily favors the Pole. Hurkacz leads the head-to-head 5-1, including a four-set win over Shapovalov at the 2024 French Open.
Hurkacz reached the semifinal by grinding past American Martin Damm 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, a three-set test that showed both his resilience and some inconsistency on return games he would normally close out faster.
Shapovalov needed two hours and 31 minutes to beat Adrian Mannarino 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-2 in the quarterfinal, hitting 14 aces against nine double faults while converting 4 of 8 break points and saving all four he faced. His serve has been the difference all week, but the double-fault count is a real vulnerability against a returner as clean as Hurkacz.
Hurkacz's own serve should hold up on this hard court, and his head-to-head dominance combined with Shapovalov's error-prone service games points to a tight but ultimately favorable outcome for the Pole.
Prediction: Hurkacz in three sets. Confidence: medium.