Daniil Medvedev remains the clear favorite heading into Monday's Hangzhou semifinals after his quarterfinal against Yunuo Wong. His return game and court coverage have been the most reliable weapons in the draw all week, and nothing in the bottom half of the bracket has offered much resistance to his level.
Andrey Rublev looks like the biggest threat to that path. His 2026 season numbers, 29 wins against 17 losses, are the strongest of anyone left in the field, and his quarterfinal against Hugo Gaston is one he should navigate in straight sets given the surface and the head-to-head history between them.
The other half is far less settled. Roman Safiullin, Bu Yunchaokete, Fabian Marozsan and Kyrian Jacquet split two quarterfinals with no head-to-head history to lean on, which makes that side of the draw the most unpredictable in the tournament. Marozsan's volume of matches this season gives him a reasonable edge to be the one to emerge.
If Medvedev and Rublev both advance as expected, Tuesday's final would pit the tour's most efficient returner against its most aggressive baseline hitter, a matchup Medvedev's numbers slightly favor on this surface.
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev to reach the final. Confidence: medium.