Second seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina meets qualifier Nikoloz Basilashvili on Monday in a Chengdu semifinal between two players trending in opposite directions. They have met once, with Basilashvili winning 0-6, 6-4, 7-6(4) on clay in Metz in 2021. They have never played on hard court.
Davidovich Fokina, ranked 29th, is 25-15 in 2026 and has not dropped a set through two matches in Chengdu in his return from more than two months away from competition, hitting winners on 45 percent of his total points.
Basilashvili, ranked 145th, is 24-28 this season but has been the story of the draw, reaching his first ATP semifinal since Doha 2022 without losing a set across five matches, most recently beating Jenson Brooksby 6-4, 7-6(4). He is only the fourth qualifier in tournament history to reach this stage.
Basilashvili's run is legitimate, but Davidovich Fokina's ball-striking and movement on hard courts are a level above what he has faced so far this week, and that gap should show up in the closing stages.
Prediction: Davidovich Fokina in three sets. Confidence: medium.