Juan Manuel Cerundolo is the ranked favourite against Yi Zhou at the Chengdu Open, but this is the first round match most likely to embarrass a seed's projection. Cerundolo, who drew himself into this fixture at the ceremony, arrives with a career built almost entirely on clay. His only ATP Tour title came on the dirt in Cordoba in 2021, and his hard court record has never matched it.
Zhou is the opposite kind of player in exactly the wrong way for the Argentine. The Chinese wild card has won his opening round in Chengdu in each of the past two years, which is not a coincidence on a fast surface in front of a home crowd. He hits flat, plays close to the baseline and takes time away, all of which strips Cerundolo of the extended rallies and heavy topspin exchanges where he is most comfortable.
Cerundolo also lost his Chengdu opener last year to Lorenzo Sonego, a reminder that ranking has not translated here.
Zhou's record in this specific situation is the stronger signal. Take the wild card in three.
**Prediction: Zhou in three sets. Confidence: low.**